India - China Skirmish in Pangong Tso
There is a common feeling in Beijing is they should teach India a lesson". This so called “lesson” may be implemented in a time frame to now to next 6–8 months.
Communist China first Chairman Mao used to boost that the main reason of 1962 India-China was to teach India/Nehru a lesson. In fact they succeeded and grabbed thousands of KM of land in Ladkah region. It seems that China may be thinking on the same lines that they should again teach India a “lesson". But they miss a point that India has changed a lot and India will give a bloody blow to China in case of any Chinese misadventure.
India (perhaps for the first time since 1962 war) initiated an action on LAC on night on 29th-30th August when India captured some vacant posts (entirely on Indian side) on the southern bank of Pangong Tso lake. As per latest news India has captured some heights along Finger 4 on the northern bank of Pangong Tso lake.
Image Source - The Print
You can see the International Border (IB) is very near to Helmet/Black Top (which is under Indian control). These peaks are at height and from here Indian Army can easily overlook Finger 4 to Finger 8 area on the northern bank of the lake.This area between International Border and LAC was captured by China in 1962 war. In this same sector, Indian Army was involved in many historic last stands & battles. Two Param Veer Chakra Lt. Colonel Dhan Singh Thapa (at battle of Srijap on northern bank of Pangong Tso lake) and Major Shaitan Singh (at Battle of Rezang La which is on southern bank of Pangong Tso lake a few KMs from Black top) were awarded in this sector.
Image Source - Google Maps
In this map you can clearly see that Xinxiang-Tibet highway is not very far the flash point on LAC on south bank of Pangong Tso lake. Even in Indian side Leh-Manali road & some important roads & Chushul Airstrip are not very far away from LAC. This was the reason some of the most fierce battles took place in this area.
Chinese pride is too big to sallow the fact that India has captured some heights right under nose of Chinese and India now enjoys the advantage of height in whole area. China has deployed thousands of soldiers, tanks, heavy artillery etc. in this sector. India has also deployed equivalent number of men & material in this area. It may be a matter of time when China will attack Indian positions. This attack may come today, tomorrow or next summer or at some other place. But there is no doubt that China will attack. China may launch some localized action to capture some peaks or many peaks in whole Chushul sector. Another option is that China may conduct some localized action anywhere from Arunachal Pradesh to Ladakh. But the main question would be that how much risk China is willing to take. That's why Indian Army has given order to its local commanders to use appropriate force against any Chinese aggression.
China has difficult options to capture Helmet/Black Top as India has height advantage. Indian Army can defend any Chinese infantry attack but the use of artillery & air power can change the whole situation (the tide of Kargil changed when Indian used Bofors guns and Mirage 2000 fighter/bombers). If Chinese use air power then they can capture these heights but it would mean Indian Air force would bomb Chinese position and it may escalate to a full war. Indian Army is bracing for any Chinese attack and I hope that some cooler minds would prevail in Beijing. The stand off was started by Chinese desire of land grab and India gave proper answer. Now the onus is on China to stop spiral escalation.